Key Highlights
- Waymo, Alphabet’s autonomous vehicle unit, completed 1.02 million driverless rides in California in September.
- Cowen analyst John Blackledge expects Waymo to reach over 300,000 paid rides per week by the end of 2026.
- Blackledge maintains a Buy rating on GOOGL shares with a $335 price target, expecting 17% annual returns from now.
Waymo’s Autonomous Ride Milestone
In September of this year, Waymo, the autonomous vehicle unit of Alphabet Inc., surpassed a significant milestone by completing over one million driverless rides in California. This achievement marks a substantial growth from previous months, with ride growth accelerating to 15% month-over-month compared to 13% in August. The increase was attributed partly to a strong performance in July, which followed lower vehicle deployment due to protests in major cities like Los Angeles and San Francisco.
The report also highlighted that the average trip length for Waymo’s rides reached a new high of 6.46 miles per ride in September, showcasing improvement in service reliability and passenger experience.
Analyst’s Forecast on Waymo
Cowen analyst John Blackledge, who ranks among the top 5% of Street stock experts, has provided an optimistic outlook for Waymo. According to Blackledge, the company is now completing “well over” 300,000 paid rides per week, a significant jump from the more than 250,000 weekly rides disclosed by management during Q1 earnings in April before the Atlanta launch in June.
Recent data suggests that paid rides in California reached approximately 240,000 per week in September, up about 31% from around 180,000 per week in April. This growth trajectory is expected to continue as Waymo expands its service areas and introduces new features like freeway access for select riders in Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco.
Investment Outlook and Future Projections
Blackledge’s analysis suggests that by the end of 2026, Waymo will have approximately 5,100 vehicles across its Waymo One service and partner network. This marks a significant increase from his previous forecast of 3,800 and an expansion from around 2,400 vehicles in 2025.
Looking even further ahead, Blackledge sees the fleet exceeding 31,000 vehicles by 2030. The analyst also expects Waymo to complete around 27 million paid rides in 2026, up from an earlier estimate of 22 million and growing to roughly 164 million by 2030.
In terms of investment recommendations, Blackledge maintained a Buy rating on GOOGL shares with a $335 price target.
This suggests that investors could potentially see returns of 17% annually from now. The analyst’s forecast is supported by the strong demand for autonomous vehicle services and the strategic expansion plans of Waymo.
Overall, these projections indicate a promising future for Waymo and Alphabet Inc., as they continue to lead in the field of autonomous vehicles. Investors who are bullish on technology and innovation might find this outlook compelling, with potential returns well above average over the next several years.
