Youtube TV Blackout Is Costing Disney an Estimated $4.3 Million Per Day in Lost Revenue

The Blackout and Its Financial Impact on Disney

Home TV News has reported that the ongoing blackout of ESPN, ABC, and other networks on Google’s YouTube TV is costing Disney an estimated $4.3 million in lost revenue each day. This financial impact is based on a research note from Morgan Stanley equity analysts Benjamin Swinburne and Thomas Yeh, who estimate that this dispute could result in a $60 million revenue headwind for the entertainment giant during its year-end 2025 quarter.

Timeline and Context

The blackout began just before midnight on October 30, 2025, as negotiations between Disney and Google over carriage fees failed. The companies are reportedly at odds over price, with Google claiming that Disney is seeking an unprecedented fee hike, while Disney argues that Google is “refusing to pay fair rates for our channels.”

Disney’s Financial Outlook

According to financial data provider LSEG, analysts expect Disney to report $22.78 billion in revenue and earnings per share of $1.02 for the September 2025 quarter. Morgan Stanley’s analysts further predict that each week without carriage will lower Disney’s adjusted earnings per share by 2 cents.

Impact on Subscriber Base

The blackout has also impacted YouTube TV subscribers, with a recent survey indicating that 24% of users have canceled or plan to cancel their service due to the loss of ESPN and ABC networks. To mitigate potential cancellations, YouTube TV began alerting subscribers about how to manually apply a one-time $20 credit to their accounts.

Future Developments

Morgan Stanley’s analysts believe that the debut of ESPN Unlimited has gone well relative to modest expectations. They estimate that by September 2026, ESPN Unlimited will have signed up about 3 million subscribers, each generating $18-$20 net effective monthly revenue.

Conclusion

The ongoing dispute between Disney and Google over carriage fees is not only impacting the entertainment industry but also significantly affecting Disney’s financial performance. As negotiations continue, both companies will be closely watching how this standoff unfolds and its potential long-term impacts on their respective businesses.

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