Thunderstorms Possible This Evening Ahead of a Thanksgiving That Will Be as Nice as Pie

Thunderstorms Expected This Evening in Houston

In today’s post, we discuss the potential for storms this evening as a weak front sags into the area. A second push of colder air is expected to make things feel festive on Thanksgiving Day. The weekend’s weather outlook includes scattered showers during the day with higher rain chances by Saturday and Sunday.

Current Weather Conditions

In brief, our forecast indicates a warm front moving back onshore overnight this weekend, bringing cooler fall weather to an end. Today will be rather warm, with highs in the low 80s despite mostly cloudy skies. Scattered (mostly light) showers are expected during the daytime as well.

Thanksgiving Weather Outlook

The initial push of cooler air with this front will be fairly weak, resulting in a high around 80 degrees on Thanksgiving Day, with mostly sunny skies and lower humidity. Low temperatures should drop into the 50s by nightfall. The day will start clear and cool, with sunny skies throughout. There are no weather concerns for Thanksgiving, with light winds expected and highs generally in the upper 60s.

Severe Weather Outlook

The severe weather outlook for Monday evening is more concerning. A broken line of storms associated with a cold front will develop to the northwest of Houston by around 7 to 9 pm, advancing into the city during the late evening and pushing off the coast after midnight.

Thunderstorms on Monday Night

By this evening, likely between 7 and 9 pm, a broken line of storms associated with the cold front will develop. This line will slowly advance into the city during the late evening hours and push off the coast after midnight. Damaging winds are possible with this front, perhaps gusting up to 50 mph, with potentially some hail.

Expected Rainfall

Rain accumulations will vary widely but most of us should pick up between 0.25 and 0.75 inch. The HRRR model forecast for radar reflectivity at 10 pm CT on Monday evening shows a likely scenario, though it is for illustration purposes only.

Thanksgiving Day Weather

Thanksgiving morning should be the coolest of the week. Starting clear and cool with sunny skies throughout the day, there are no weather concerns. Light winds are expected, and highs will generally be in the upper 60s. Lows on Thursday night will drop to around 50 degrees.

Weekend Outlook

The onshore flow resumes on Friday, entering a period of mostly cloudy skies and increased rain chances by Saturday morning. High temperatures through Sunday should be in the low- to mid-70s with modestly increasing humidity levels. Overall, the area is expected to pick up 1 to 2 inches of rainfall over these days.

For those planning outdoor activities, we’ll keep a close eye on the forecast for you.

At this point, showers are likely to be intermittent rather than wall-to-wall, but we don’t have a good handle on the details yet. The weekend’s weather will significantly impact Thanksgiving plans, so stay tuned for further updates.

The severe weather outlook also includes a potential low-end severe weather risk in Houston on Monday, with a near-perfect Thanksgiving on the horizon as of now.