Key Highlights
- The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its 2025 Thanksgiving and winter weather forecast.
- New York is expected to experience a cooler fall with the first measurable snowfall occurring in early November.
- Thanksgiving week will see limited snow in northern parts of the country, sun in most of the East, and rain in the West.
- Nationwide, 2025-26 is predicted to be mostly mild with pockets of colder-than-usual conditions, particularly in central and southern New York.
Old Farmer’s Almanac Releases Detailed Weather Forecast for Thanksgiving 2025 and Winter 2025-26
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its detailed weather forecast for the upcoming holiday season, providing valuable insights into what New Yorkers can expect. This forecast is particularly important as many travel plans are being made in advance of Thanksgiving.
Thanksgiving Travel Weather Map and Forecast
Around the country, the Almanac predicts a “patchwork” of weather conditions during Thanksgiving week. In northern parts of the United States, there may be limited snowfall, while sunny and dry conditions are expected in most areas of the East Coast. However, travelers should prepare for cooler temperatures as the Atlantic corridor experiences mild temperatures that drop by the time of the holiday.
According to AAA reports, an estimated 80 million Americans will travel more than 50 miles for Thanksgiving this year. The Almanac advises that while their forecast is a useful tool for planning, local conditions should be closely monitored as they can vary significantly. “They’re perfect for planning, but not a substitute for daily local forecasts,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac stated.
First Snowfall Predictions in New York
In terms of snowfall predictions, the first measurable snow in upstate New York is typically within the first week of November. However, this can vary based on location and historical data. For instance, Binghamton, Syracuse, Buffalo, Rochester, JFK International Airport, LaGuardia International Airport, and Central Park in NYC are expected to see their first measurable snowfall as follows:
- Binghamton NY – November 1
- Syracuse NY – November 6
- Buffalo NY – November 7
- Rochester NY – November 8
- JFK International Airport – December 9
- LaGuardia International Airport – December 10
- Central Park in NYC – December 13
National Winter Weather Forecast for 2025-26
Nationwide, the Almanac predicts a winter that will be “mostly mild” with pockets of colder-than-usual conditions. Central and southern New York are expected to experience a colder-than-normal winter, while western New York, the Capital Region, Adirondacks, Hudson Valley, and New York City/Long Island may see milder temperatures. Snowfall predictions vary significantly across the state:
- Western New York is predicted to have below-average precipitation and near normal snowfall.
- The northeastern part of the state expects normal but “lighter-than-average” snowfall.
- The Southern Tier is expected to have a colder than usual winter with below-normal snowfall.
- New York City and Long Island are predicted to experience milder, drier weather with below-normal snowfall.
Historical data from the National Weather Service shows that last year’s snow totals were as follows: Syracuse at 115.4 inches, Rochester with 88.6 inches, Buffalo at 77.3 inches, and New York City’s Central Park at 12.9 inches.
Accuracy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac
The accuracy rate of the Old Farmer’s Almanac is reportedly around 80%, based on a mix of solar science (sunspot activity), climatology (prevailing weather patterns), and meteorology (atmospheric study). The Almanac bases its long-range forecasts on these combined methods, making them useful for planning purposes but not as precise as daily local forecasts.
For New Yorkers preparing for both Thanksgiving travel and the winter season ahead, it is advisable to keep an eye on local weather reports leading up to the holidays. Despite the Almanac’s predictions, local conditions can often differ from long-range forecasts due to various meteorological factors.
