Key Highlights
- Solana price has dropped almost 22% over the past month.
- Long-term holders have been reducing their exposure by trimming supply all month.
- The 100-day exponential moving average is close to crossing below the 200-day EMA, reflecting a tired trend.
- Key resistance points between $140 and $142 are pressuring the Solana price.
The Current State of Solana’s Market Performance
Solana, one of the leading cryptocurrencies in the market, has seen its value fluctuate significantly over the past month. As of today, the token is up about 4.2%, but this upward movement seems to be met with skepticism among industry experts and long-term holders.
Long-Term Holders’ Behavior Signals Caution
The latest on-chain data indicates that long-term Solana holders are not supporting the recent rebound in price. According to HODL Waves, a platform that tracks the supply held by different age groups of tokens, the 1-2 year holder group has seen its holdings fall from 19.28% of the total supply on October 20 to 17.24% as of November 19. This reduction marks a significant change in behavior for a cohort that typically remains stable during market corrections.
Long-term holders’ caution is further emphasized by their ongoing reductions, which follow a period where Solana’s price was consistently weak. This pattern directly challenges the notion of a true trend shift and raises doubts about recent price movements being sustainable or indicative of a broader recovery in value.
Technical Indicators Point to Bearish Sentiment
The current market dynamics are further complicated by two key technical issues. Firstly, the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) is now close to crossing below the 200-day EMA, a setup that often signals a weakening trend. Earlier bearish crossovers of this nature—such as the 50-day EMA falling below the 100-day EMA—have historically preceded fresh drops in Solana’s price.
Secondly, the current price level is approaching heavily concentrated supply areas between $140 and $142.
The Cost-Basis Heatmap from Glassnode shows that these zones hold approximately 33.2 million SOL in cost basis. This supply pressure acts as a key resistance point, making it difficult for the Solana price to maintain its current upward trend without overcoming this hurdle.
Key Levels to Watch
A clean daily close above $143 would be crucial for confirming the strength of the recent rebound and opening the door to potential further gains. If the price stabilizes above this level, Solana could target levels around $146 and then potentially toward $167, which it has failed to clear since November 4. A break above $167 would mark a significant shift in sentiment and could lead to a move toward $189 and $205.
Conversely, if Solana closes back under $143, the recent bounce is likely to fade, and the market may enter a range-bound pause.
Failure to hold this level would confirm ongoing weakness, potentially allowing for a deeper slide in the price.
In summary, while there are brief greenish movements, the broader picture remains bearish due to long-term holder behavior and technical indicators. Investors will need to closely monitor key levels such as $143 to gauge whether the recent uptick is sustainable or merely a temporary pause in the larger downtrend.
