Key Highlights
- FanGraphs projects Los Angeles Dodgers with a 28.4% chance to win the 2026 World Series.
- This number nearly triples Atlanta Braves’ odds at 10.2%, creating one of the largest gaps in recent projection history.
- The Dodgers are projected to win 99.6 games, with a 99.1% chance of reaching the playoffs.
- Los Angeles’ 28% chance marks an unprecedented concentration of championship equity heading into 2026.
Dodgers’ Dominance in FanGraphs Projections
FanGraphs, one of baseball’s premier advanced analytics platforms, has released its 2026 preseason projections. The Los Angeles Dodgers sit alone at the top with a staggering 28.4% chance to win the World Series, nearly tripling Atlanta Braves’ odds at 10.2%. This gap is larger than the difference between Atlanta and ninth-place Philadelphia Phillies (4.2%).
The analytics site projects the Dodgers to win 99.6 games with a 99.1% chance of reaching the playoffs. No other team in baseball breaks 11% to win it all, emphasizing their overwhelming favorite status.
Broader MLB Landscape
In contrast, the American League looks far more balanced. Seattle and New York both project at 6.1%, with Boston (5.1%) and Toronto (4.7%) close behind. Detroit surprisingly cracks 4.2% after their 2025 postseason run.
Mariners’ 86.3 projected wins come from elite pitching and an All-Star-heavy lineup, giving them a 71.3% playoff shot and a 52.1% chance of winning the AL West. The Yankees project to 86 wins with 68.2% playoff odds, but their 29.7% division odds pale next to the Dodgers’ near-lock on the NL West.
Wide Gap Between Top Teams
The gap between Los Angeles and the second-place Atlanta Braves is larger than the difference between Atlanta and ninth-place Philadelphia Phillies (4.2%). FanGraphs projects nearly a coin flip that one of those three National League powers wins it all, with a 46.3% combined probability.
Twenty-two of the 30 teams sit under 2% to win the World Series before a single pitch has been thrown. Three teams—the Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, and Colorado Rockies—register at 0%. That’s not literally zero; it rounds down to under 0.05%, according to FanGraphs.
Unprecedented Concentration of Equity
The Dodgers’ 28% marks a massive concentration of championship equity heading into 2026. While the gap between them and the field is historic, October remains unpredictable. Despite their strong projection, 72% of FanGraphs’ simulations still see someone else lifting the trophy.
