Key Highlights
- Nick Giffen, a predictive analyst at Action Network, provides player prop picks for NFL Week 13.
- The picks focus on Nick Chubb and Breece Hall, with specific props related to rushing yards and longest rush attempts.
- Chubb is expected to have over 15.5 rushing yards against the Colts, while Hall’s longest rush should be under 16.5 yards.
NFL Player Props: Nick Chubb and Breece Hall for Week 13
As we approach NFL Week 13, predictive analyst Nick Giffen from Action Network offers his insight on player props for key matchups. This analysis delves into the statistical expectations of two prominent running backs, Nick Chubb and Breece Hall.
Nick Chubb: Over 15.5 Rushing Yards
Chubb’s recent form has seen a notable decrease in his carry count, averaging just 4.67 carries per game over the past three weeks. However, two of these six games have featured double-digit carries for Chubb, suggesting that he is not fully entrenched in a low-carry role.
Chubb’s matchup with the Colts is favorable due to his tendency to run to the right, where he has seen the highest yards per carry (4.35 YPC) and matches up against the Colts’ weakest run defense on this side of the field. Additionally, Chubb’s runs are more often executed through man or gap concepts, areas where the Colts have struggled.
Based on these factors, Giffen projects that Chubb will average around 4.15 yards per carry, equating to approximately 24.5 rushing yards in total. However, given his high gap between mean and median carries, the projection leans toward a lower expectation of 18.5 rushing yards.
“This is one of the bigger values I’m showing on this game,” Giffen notes, indicating that while there is value here, it’s not overly strong enough to warrant a full unit bet.
Breece Hall: Longest Rush Under 16.5 Yards
Considering Breece Hall’s performance under different quarterbacks, Giffen observes an interesting trend. With Justin Fields at quarterback, Hall has seen more of his runs turn into explosive plays (20-of-132 rushing attempts from at least 16 yards away went for over 10+ yards). This number drops significantly with Tyrod Taylor under center.
The reason behind this difference is that Fields’ presence opens up running lanes, allowing Hall to be more effective in designed plays.
Conversely, Taylor’s scrambling often limits the effectiveness of these opportunities. The matchup against the Falcons also favors Hall, as the defense has been better at stopping zone-concept runs and runs to the left.
Using Giffen’s projections, Hall is expected to have a 65% chance of keeping his longest rush under 16.5 yards, which makes this prop an attractive bet despite the smaller sample size with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.
Conclusion
The picks for Nick Chubb and Breece Hall in Week 13 highlight the importance of matchups and recent trends when making player props decisions. Giffen’s analysis provides valuable insights into the statistical landscape, allowing bettors to navigate the betting market more effectively.
