Key Highlights
- The 2025-26 NHL season’s projected playoff standings are based on 50,000 simulations.
- Main contenders include the Lightning and Avalanche with high probabilities of making it to the Stanley Cup Finals.
- Simulations factor in each team’s current health, strength, and remaining schedule.
- The model provides detailed projections for all 31 NHL teams, including their chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Projecting NHL Playoff Contenders
The 2025-26 National Hockey League (NHL) season is heating up, and predictions about which teams will make it to the playoffs and beyond are becoming more critical. The Athletic has provided a comprehensive projection of each team’s playoff chances based on an advanced simulation model that factors in various elements including current health, strength of schedule, and projected performance.
Methodology: A Rigorous Approach
The methodology behind these projections is robust. Starting at the player level, it creates a detailed offensive and defensive rating for each player using a linear weight model that combines production and play-driving ability through various box score and on-ice metrics. These ratings are then adjusted based on contextual usage—how players interact with their teammates and opponents.
From there, an Offensive and Defensive Rating is generated for each team, which estimates the number of goals they will likely score and allow against an average opponent in a neutral site game. This data forms the basis for simulating the rest of the season (including playoffs) 50,000 times using the Monte Carlo method.
Projected Standings: Key Teams
The projections are striking, with teams like the Lightning and Avalanche standing out as strong contenders for a Stanley Cup Finals berth. The Lightning have a projected point total of 114.3 points and over a 99% chance to make it past the conference finals, though their chances of winning the cup are slightly lower at 51%. Similarly, the Avalanche project with an impressive 125.2 points and similar playoff probabilities.
Other notable teams include the Hurricanes (97.9 points), Golden Knights (102.8 points), and Oilers (95.8 points). These teams have varying degrees of chance to make it to the conference finals, with the Hurricanes having a 20% probability, while the Oilers are at 90%.
Conclusion
The Long Road Ahead
The road to the Stanley Cup is long and challenging. With each team’s projected performance heavily reliant on their current health, schedule, and the model’s assumptions, these projections offer a fascinating insight into the future of the NHL season. However, as we approach February and March, many factors can shift rapidly, making the path to the playoffs and ultimately the Stanley Cup a thrilling journey.
