Key Highlights
- The Denver Broncos are favored by a couple of points at home if Bo Nix were playing but are now five-point underdogs.
- J.K. Dobbins is expected to return for the AFC Championship Game after missing 10 weeks due to injury.
- The New England Patriots have had an easy schedule and will face their first real test against a No. 1 seed in the Broncos.
- Sean Payton believes that backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham can surprise people with his performance.
- Home underdogs of 4 or more points in the playoffs are 9-0 ATS in the past 50 years, making the Broncos a strong pick.
NFL Conference Championship: Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots
The Denver Broncos face a significant challenge as they prepare for the AFC Championship Game against the New England Patriots on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on CBS. The Broncos, led by head coach Sean Payton, are now five-point underdogs instead of favored by a couple of points due to quarterback Bo Nix’s season-ending injury.
The absence of Bo Nix has shifted the narrative surrounding the Broncos’ playoff prospects, making their upcoming game against the Patriots a crucial test.
The Broncos have been missing key players due to injuries, and J.K. Dobbins, who led the team in rushing during the regular season despite missing seven games, is expected to return after being out for 10 weeks with a foot injury.
The Broncos’ Case
Despite their current underdog status, the Broncos present an interesting case for betting enthusiasts. Running back J.K. Dobbins brings a significant boost in both running and explosive plays compared to rookie RJ Harvey, who has managed only 91 yards rushing on 35 carries over the past three games.
Payton believes that Jarrett Stidham, the team’s backup quarterback, can surprise people with his performance. While Stidham may not be Nix’s equal in terms of talent, he does have a higher percentage of explosive rushes and has shown some swagger on the field during previous starts with the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Patriots’ Defense
Meanwhile, the New England Patriots travel to Denver for their first playoff road game. The Patriots had an historically easy schedule in the regular season but now face a formidable opponent in the Broncos. Coach Mike Vrabel is finally carrying his weight after the defense struggled for the first 16 weeks of the season.
The Patriots’ secondary concerns include quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who has fumbled six times in the playoffs and lost three. Additionally, left tackle Will Campbell’s recent struggles have allowed four sacks and 10 pressures in the past two games, presenting a significant challenge for the Broncos’ offense.
Historical Context
The home underdog of 4 or more points in the playoffs has an impressive historical record. Over the past 50 years, such teams have gone 9-0 against the spread (ATS) when facing a No. 1 seed, making the Broncos a strong pick for bettors.
Vic Tafur, a senior writer for The Athletic covering the San Francisco 49ers and NFL, suggests taking the points on the Broncos at +210 odds, emphasizing that home underdogs of 4 or more points in the playoffs have been successful historically. He also notes that the Patriots’ defense will face its toughest test yet against a Broncos team that can get after the quarterback with 71 sacks across 18 games.
The pick: Denver Broncos
In conclusion, while the New England Patriots have had an easy schedule, their upcoming game against the Denver Broncos presents a significant challenge.
The Broncos’ home field advantage and J.K. Dobbins’ return make them a strong contender in this matchup, supported by historical data suggesting that underdogs of 4 or more points in the playoffs have been successful.
