, we’re two out of three in the expected wins,” Atkinson told reporters Sunday. “I don’t know if you guys follow that — the expected score. We’ve won two out of three.”
It’s a bold statement from the coach, one that challenges the narrative of a team on the brink of elimination. But Atkinson’s words ring true when you consider the numbers. The Cavaliers are struggling to meet their expected performance standards, while the Knicks are exceeding theirs.
The Numbers Game
According to ESPN Research, the Cavs have struggled from long range in recent games. In Game 3, they missed 10 of 17 open three-point shots and shot just 29% (12-of-41) from beyond the arc overall. Meanwhile, the Knicks are making 42% of their open threes in the series.
“Last night, our expected score was like one point or two — us shooting way below expected,” Atkinson explained. “Them shooting way over. I know no one wants to hear that.”
The Crucial Game 4
The writing is on the wall for the Cavaliers. A victory in Game 4 could give them a chance to tie the series, while a loss would likely mean a sweep and the end of their season. Atkinson remains optimistic, citing past success against the Knicks.
“We’ve had really good moments in this series — up 20 in Game 1. Even Game 2, take that run out from the beginning of the third quarter, and it’s pretty tight.”
The Road Ahead
The Cavaliers are facing an uphill battle, but Atkinson’s data-driven approach might just offer a glimmer of hope. Whether this is a mirage or a real opportunity remains to be seen. One thing is certain: the next game will decide whether these numbers can translate into reality on the court.
