Key Highlights
- Iona Gaels vs St. John’s Red Storm: Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on TNT.
- Favored Team: St. John’s is favored by -27.5 points on the spread with a total of 161 points.
- Prediction and Picks: The author predicts an over, with his pick being Over 161 (Play to 162).
The Match-up: Iona Gaels vs St. John’s Red Storm
The Iona Gaels, led by Dan Geriot in their third year since Rick Pitino’s departure, face the St. John’s Red Storm, coached by the man himself. The match-up marks a return visit for Pitino to his former team and will take place on Saturday, December 13 at 12 p.m. ET on TNT.
Iona Gaels: A New Era Under Dan Geriot
Since Rick Pitino left Iona in the third year of his tenure, the Gaels have struggled to make a significant impact. Their best start under new coach Dan Geriot comes despite a schedule that ranks 321st in strength of schedule according to KenPom. Geriot’s team is known for their high tempo play, ranking 25th in adjusted tempo and 56th in average possession length.
The Gaels also excel at shooting the three-point shot, ranking in the top 50 nationally in 3-point percentage, which could be a key factor in this matchup.
However, they face a tough challenge against a St. John’s team that has won most of its games against higher-ranked opponents.
St. John’s Red Storm: A High-Tempo Force
Rick Pitino’s return to the helm at St. John’s brings back memories of his three successful years there, during which he made two NCAA Tournament appearances. The Red Storm continue their tradition of high-tempo basketball, ranking 265th or worse in free-throw attempts over the last two seasons but now rank 19th this year.
This matchup comes after St.
John’s faced three top 30 teams and will play three teams outside the top 130 in KenPom next, suggesting a more favorable schedule moving forward. Their ability to get to the basket and create easier chances could be crucial for their success against Iona.
Betting Analysis: Over/Under Prediction
The betting market is heavily focused on the over, with the total set at 161 points. This prediction stems from two key factors: both teams are fast-paced and capable of shooting threes at a decent rate, which should result in a high-scoring game.
While Iona may struggle to cover the spread due to their weaker schedule, the over/under bet offers better value. The author leans towards taking this number with Iona, but emphasizes that the over is the clear play based on the fast-paced nature of both teams and their ability to generate shot volume.
To sum up, the matchup between Iona Gaels and St. John’s Red Storm promises a high-scoring game, making it an enticing proposition for bettors looking to back the over at 161 points.
