Explainer: How India, New Zealand and Sri Lanka Can Still Make the Women’s World Cup Semi-Finals

India’s Path to the Semi-finals

Currently ranked fourth in the standings with a Net Run Rate (NRR) of +0.526, India has two crucial matches ahead: against New Zealand on Thursday and Bangladesh on Sunday. A win in both matches will secure their place in the semi-finals. Even if they manage to defeat only one of these teams—New Zealand—and lose to Bangladesh, they can still qualify with six points and three wins under their belt.

However, losing to both teams would be a significant setback for India, as they are hosting this year’s tournament. Their current record includes two wins (against Sri Lanka through the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method) and losses against England and South Africa, highlighting the narrow margins in their recent performances.

New Zealand’s Strategic Path

With a Net Run Rate of -0.245, New Zealand has a slightly more favorable position than India but faces its own challenges. If they manage to defeat both India and England in their remaining matches, they will secure the semi-final spot with eight points. However, should they win against India but lose to England, they may still qualify if Bangladesh defeats India and their NRR finishes higher than Sri Lanka (or if Pakistan beats Sri Lanka).

New Zealand’s recent form is mixed; they have only one victory in five matches, securing a 100-run win over Bangladesh. Their losses include a crushing defeat by South Africa and a close loss to Australia, both by large margins.

Sri Lanka’s Narrow Path

Currently sixth with an NRR of -1.035, Sri Lanka’s prospects are the most challenging among the three teams vying for the semi-final spot. To qualify, they must defeat Pakistan on Friday and hope that India loses to both New Zealand and Bangladesh while their own NRR finishes higher than New Zealand’s. Their recent performance includes a narrow victory over Bangladesh, a loss by 89 runs against England, and an abandoned match against Australia.

Chamari Athapaththu’s last-minute intervention in Sri Lanka’s match against Bangladesh is a testament to the team’s resilience but also underscores the slim margins they are working with. Their current form suggests that any slip-up could see them miss out on a place in the semi-finals, despite their efforts.

Conclusion

The race for the last semi-final spot in the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 is tight and filled with uncertainty. Each team must navigate through their remaining matches meticulously to secure their position. India, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka are all fighting on different fronts but share a common goal: to reach the semi-finals of this prestigious tournament.