- Buffalo is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148.
- The total is set at 144.5 points, favoring Buffalo’s 3-point shooting and defense.
- UMBC comes into the game with a respectable 6-3 record but faces more formidable opponents in their schedule.
- The Retrievers’ balanced approach to scoring could be key against Buffalo’s strong guard play.
Buffalo Bulls: A Season of Struggles and Successes
Buffalo enters this matchup with an impressive 8-1 record, a testament to their strong 3-point shooting and robust defense. However, it’s essential to note that the Bulls’ strength of schedule ranks near the bottom in college basketball. Out of the 360+ teams, they sit at a dismal 350th place.
Their eight wins are mostly against lower-ranked KenPom teams, with their lone loss coming against St. Bonaventure on home ground.
Despite this, Buffalo boasts a potent offensive arsenal led by Daniel Freitag, a 6-foot-2 guard out of Minnesota who contributes an average of 19.8 points, 4.2 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. Ryan Sabol and Angelo Brizzi are also key players, averaging more than 15 points each. The Bulls’ reliance on their perimeter shooting might face a challenge in Baltimore as they travel to Maryland to face the Retrievers.
UMBC Retrievers: A Balanced Approach
UMBC arrives with a respectable 6-3 record, and while they face more formidable opponents than Buffalo, all of their losses have come on the road against top-tier teams. Their three defeats came against Dayton, Georgetown, and George Washington, all ranked in the top 100 in KenPom’s power rankings. Despite these tough matchups, UMBC has shown a balanced approach to scoring, which could pose challenges for Buffalo’s heavy reliance on its star players.
Interestingly, both teams share a common trait: their ability to slow down the pace of play. Expect a more controlled game that should be close and competitive, with both sides looking to exploit each other’s strengths and weaknesses.
Betting Analysis: A Favorable Pick for UMBC
While Buffalo has the better record, it’s challenging to side with them based on their recent performance. The Retrievers average just two points fewer than the Bulls and do so without a single player averaging 15 points or more. Meanwhile, Buffalo has three such players, leading to a potential mismatch in the game’s structure.
UMBC’s balanced approach could prove decisive as they seek to capitalize on any opportunities against Buffalo’s strong guard play.
Additionally, their ability to limit opponents from scoring from beyond the arc (13th-best) aligns well with Buffalo’s heavy 3-point reliance. Teams that score by committee are often harder to stop, and if the Bulls can’t get contributions outside of their top three guards, they might struggle.
My pick for this game is UMBC at +110 (Play to -115) as I believe their balanced scoring and defensive strengths give them a good chance to cover the spread against Buffalo’s potent but less consistent offensive output.
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