- Aryna Sabalenka is two wins away from a third Australian Open title in four years.
- Three top-15 players—Elina Svitolina, Elena Rybakina, and Jessica Pegula—are looking to spoil Sabalenka’s party in the semi-finals.
- Sabalenka has lost just one of her past 25 matches at Melbourne Park.
- The three semi-finalists will hope to defeat Sabalenka for the first time since their respective last meetings with her.
Key Player: Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka, the world number one and defending champion at both 2023 and 2024 Australian Opens, is just two wins away from securing a third title in four years. Her consistency on the hard courts of Melbourne Park has been nothing short of remarkable—she’s lost only once in her last 25 matches there.
However, Sabalenka’s reign may be challenged by three formidable opponents who are looking to deny her another championship. Each player brings a unique threat to the table: Elina Svitolina with her newfound aggression, Elena Rybakina with her big-serving prowess, and Jessica Pegula with her well-rounded game.
Elina Svitolina’s Aggressive Return
At 31 years old, Elina Svitolina is making a strong case to be one of the best players on the tour. After giving birth in 2022 and returning to the courts, she has more than doubled her number of semi-final appearances in just three seasons thanks to a more aggressive playing style.
Elina Svitolina: “Since I came back after pregnancy, for me it’s been all about trying to find those opportunities to take the initiative and strike first.”
Svitolina will face Sabalenka in their first meeting since 2020. Her approach of seeking out opportunities to take the initiative could be key in her bid to finally defeat the Belarusian.
Elena Rybakina’s Big-Serving Threat
Big-serving Elena Rybakina has established herself as a genuine threat to Sabalenka, with the only remaining player who boasts a positive head-to-head record against the champion. Rybakina’s recent victory over Sabalenka at the 2025 WTA Finals is just one of her impressive performances in the past year.
Elena Rybakina: “The most important thing for me is to be focused on my serve, since it’s a big advantage if it works, and stay aggressive in the rallies.”
Rybakina has won eight of their nine matches against each other, and with her strong recent form, she could pose a significant challenge to Sabalenka’s dominance.
Jessica Pegula: A Player in Her Prime
Jessica Pegula is through to her third major semi-final since turning 30, each appearance coming after a tough quarter-final experience. At the 2024 US Open, she finished runner-up to Sabalenka, and now feels well-equipped to handle the latter stages of Grand Slams.
Jessica Pegula: “I think I was happy that I was there and then put a little bit too much pressure on myself to get to that next match. But I think I’ve become a better player and I just know how to be in this position more. I think I have more tools.”
Pegula’s improved mental resilience could help her handle the pressure of facing Sabalenka again, while her experience should give her an edge over her younger rivals.
The Psychological Battle
While results might suggest Sabalenka has had a relatively smooth path to the semi-finals this year, she admitted that she was “emotionally all over the place” earlier in the tournament. This has been an issue for her at major tournaments, and she has worked with a psychologist to improve her mental game.
“It’s unbelievable what I was able to achieve,” Sabalenka stated, emphasizing the importance of maintaining focus on the right things. “The mentality is the same; it’s always in your mind that you want to win it. But I’m trying to shift my focus on the right things and take it step by step.”
The upcoming semi-finals will be crucial for all players involved, with each seeking to deny Sabalenka a third Australian Open title. The matches promise to be intense as these top-15 players vie for their first Grand Slam final.
