Key Highlights
- The Pittsburgh Pirates should consider pursuing Max Kepler, Michael Conforto, and Ty France as undervalued free agents.
- All three players showed consistent plate discipline and batted ball tendencies that suggest their 2025 performance was not indicative of their true abilities.
- Expected statistics indicate that these players were significantly unlucky in 2025, with large gaps between their actual and expected performances.
- The Pirates are looking for low-cost options to improve the team while adhering to a budget constraint.
Pittsburgh Pirates’ Strategy Amid Budget Constraints
The Pittsburgh Pirates face a challenging free agent market in 2025, with limited financial resources to make significant splashes. This has compelled the organization to focus on identifying undervalued talent and securing low-cost options that can contribute positively to the team’s performance.
Max Kepler: A Case of Unlucky Hitting
Max Kepler, who spent parts of his first 10 MLB seasons with the Minnesota Twins before joining the Philadelphia Phillies for a brief stint in 2025, is one such player. Despite posting poor surface numbers—.216/.300/.391 triple-slash, 300 wOBA, and a career-worst wRC+ of 89—Kepler maintained solid plate discipline with a 10.1% walk rate, above-average (56th percentile) chase rate, and low strikeout percentages. His raw power was also evident, hitting 18 home runs with an exit velocity of 90.8 MPH in the 66th percentile.
Statistical analysis suggests that Kepler’s performance was highly unlikely to continue at such a poor level. His expected wOBA (xwOBA) was .340, which is significantly higher than his actual wOBA of .287, indicating that he may be in for a rebound season.
Michael Conforto: Defensive Weaknesses Masked by Hitting Skills
Another veteran outfielder, Michael Conforto, signed with the LA Dodgers but struggled to a .199/.305/.333 slash line in 2025. While his batting average and ISO were lackluster, he maintained respectable plate discipline with an 11.5% walk rate and struck out at a 24.9% K%. His raw power was also solid, hitting 89.9 MPH exit velocity and a 9.7% barrel rate.
Conforto’s performance metrics were even more off than Kepler’s; his xwOBA of .341 was 54 points higher than his actual wOBA, making him one of the unluckiest hitters in the league.
Similarly, his expected batting average (xBA) at .268, which is significantly better than his actual BA, suggests that a rebound year could be on the horizon.
Despite these positive indicators, Conforto’s defense was poor with -5 defensive runs saved and -8 outs above average. However, considering he is also entering his age-33 season, there may still be value in pursuing him as a low-cost outfielder for the Pirates.
Ty France: A Reliable Platoon Option
For the right-handed hitting complement to first baseman Spencer Horwitz, Ty France presents an attractive option. He has shown strong plate discipline with a 4.5% walk rate and a low 16.9% strikeout rate. Despite his poor offensive output this season—.257/.320/.360 slash line, 92 wRC+, seven home runs, and .104 ISO—he maintained solid contact rates with a career-best 89.4 MPH exit velocity.
France’s expected performance metrics were favorable, with his xBA at the 64th percentile and xwOBA at the 59th percentile.
Notably, he had an impressive xSLG% of .438 and a high xwOBACON (expected wOBA on contact) score of .371.
Defensively, France was one of the best first basemen in the league with +9 DRS and +11 OAA. His fielding run value was also excellent at +7. Considering his overall performance and solid defense, the Pirates might be able to acquire him for a low cost, making him a valuable platoon bat for Horwitz.
Conclusion
Leveraging Luck and Talent
The Pittsburgh Pirates’ strategy in pursuing these free agents aligns with their budget constraints. By focusing on players like Max Kepler, Michael Conforto, and Ty France, the team aims to capitalize on their undervalued skills and performance metrics that suggest better days ahead.
As the 2025 offseason progresses, the Pirates will need to carefully evaluate these options to ensure they are making smart, cost-effective decisions. With luck playing a significant role in baseball, identifying players who performed below expectations could be key to building a competitive team for the future.
